Climate Change Modeling Expert

Result of Service

The consultant will report directly to the Adaptation Climate Change Programme Officer for Latin America and the Caribbean and will work in closed collaboration with the National Coordination team for the project in Ecuador and the Ministry of Environment, Water and Ecological Transition. Products will be elaborated according to the NAP guidelines for the human settlements sector with biophysical models (level 3).

S/He will be primarily responsible for elaborating climate change risks assessment for the city of Santo Domingo, Ecuador, as follows:
1. Landslide and Flood Impact Modelling
• Landslide model based on machine learning.
• Flood model based on hydrological and hydraulic models at up to 3 outflow points distributed in the analysis territory (with HEC RAS and HEC HMS models)
• .
2. Model Of Flood Impacts
• Determination of susceptible areas to flooding based on interpretation of the Digital Terrain Model (DTM) analysis and non-physical modelling of up to 13 locations.
• hydrological model for the entry point in the settlement of Alluriquín (with HEC HMS model).
3. Adaptation Measures
• Identification of adaptation measures based on the results.

3. Scope of Work
For these three areas of work, the following products will be prepared:

Product 1 - Proposed methodology, synthesis and availability of information.
The information for Santo Domingo shall include:
1. Official Climatic information for the historical data and future scenarios proposed for the AND.
2. Literature review of local baseline and applicable methodologies for climate risk and adaptation.
3. Geomorphological information
4. Population and housing in precarious conditions, with focus in the sectorial group of the NAP.
5. Social and local Infrastructure.
6. Other background information.

Product 2 - Preliminary results of the flood and landslides susceptible areas.
The following results are expected, which shall be presented during a meetings to the regional, national and local teams and involved stakeholders:
1. Map and spatial statistics of the landslide susceptible areas resulting from the Machine Learning based Landslide Model for Santo Domingo and Alluriquín.
2. Map and spatial statistics of the area susceptible to flooding based on Hydrological and Hydraulic Models in 3 outflow points distributed in the territory of analysis.
3. Map and spatial statistics of the area susceptible to flooding according to the Hydrological Model for the entry point in the settlement of Alluriquín.
4. Map and spatial statistics of areas susceptible to flooding according to interpretative DTM analysis and non-physical modelling for up to 13 locations.

Product 3 - Final modeling of the climate risk and biophysical impacts in Santo Domingo and adaptation measures.
The following results are expected, which shall be presented during a meetings to the regional, national and local teams and involved stakeholders:
1. Interpretation of results including maps and spatial statistics of population and housing in precarious conditions classified according to area susceptible to landslides and floods according to historical period and 5 typical years. The calibration of information is contemplated in this activity.
2. Meetings to disseminate information and results, and the use of modeling programs, aimed at the level of capacities of the regional, national and local teams. Main spatial results uploaded on open and online platforms for maps.
3. Identification of general adaptation measures according to the results, at the same scope applied in the NAP process for the climate risk in human settlements. Workshops and technical meetings will be coordinated with the Readiness Project implemented in Santo Domingo. Three field visits are contemplated for this evaluation.
4. Digital Annex with all input and output data files. Delivery of the programming script used for landslide and basin modelling, in the format shared in the NAP process.
5. Full technical report and presentation of results.

Detailed specifications for each assignment will be given to the selected consultant.

Project’s Outputs
Output 2.2.1 13 city level assessments elaborated to determine the baseline, vulnerability and GHG emissions and to identify potential NbS opportunities for adaptation and mitigation, validated by city level stakeholders including the NbS Task group for the 13 selected cities

Deliverables
Product 1: Proposed methodology, synthesis and availability of information. Report and presentation with literature review and detailed information.
Product 2: Preliminary results of the flood and landslides susceptible areas. Report and presentation with modeling process, maps and spatial statistics.
Product 3: Modeling of the climate risk and biophysical impacts in Santo Domingo and adaptation measures. Report and presentation of the final maps and results. Report and presentation of the adaptation measures.

Work Location

Home-Based

Expected duration

8 months

Duties and Responsibilities

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is the leading global environmental authority that sets the global environmental agenda, promotes the coherent implementation of the environmental dimension of sustainable development within the United Nations system and serves as an authoritative advocate for the global environment.

The UNEP Latin America and the Caribbean Office (LACO), located in Panama City, works closely with the 33 countries of the region - including 16 small island developing States - with a population of about 588 million people. The office works to serve the needs of the region and its activities are integrated into the work programs approved by the United Nations Environment Assembly of UNEP (UNEA).

UNEP seeks to support countries in Latin America to implement the Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development and its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the new Paris Agreement and the priority actions defined in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of Latin American countries.
The Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region is the second most urbanised region in the world, with ~80% of the population living in cities. Within the next two decades, this proportion is projected to reach ~85%, thereby ranking the cities of the LAC region among the fastest-growing in the developing world. The rate of urban expansion is faster in small and medium-sized cities relative to mega cities. In the medium-sized city of Kingston in Jamaica, rapid urbanization is coupled with limited urban planning. This rapid urbanisation and the associated expansion of cities is degrading urban and periurban ecosystems – including wetlands, green spaces and forests – that provide a wide range of ecosystem services for urban communities.

To address the vulnerability of urban communities, governments in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region need to develop and implement cost-effective, low-risk solutions, such as Nature-based Solutions (NbS) by protecting, maintaining and rehabilitating priority ecosystems in urban areas. As a result, UNEP is working with the governments of, Ecuador, the Dominican Republic, Honduras Cuba, Panama, Guatemala and Uruguay to execute a two-years, Readiness project “Nature4Cities - Increasing resilience through Nature- based Solutions in Latin-American cities” funded by the Green Climate Fund (GCF). The project is implemented in 7 countries (Cuba, Honduras, Ecuador, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Panama, and Uruguay) and a total of 13 cities within those countries.

The aim of the project is to increase the capacity of participating countries to design and implement Nature- based urban development strategies that ensure urban resilience to climate change through five main areas of work: (1) Strengthening the knowledge base of national and local governments to assess the potential for Nature- based Adaptation and Mitigation Solutions in urban areas in the context of broader climate change strategies; (2) Reinforcing enabling policies and institutional frameworks to increase adoption of NbS in urban planning; (3) Strengthening partnerships between key actors to accelerate the adoption of NbS solutions; (4) Defining climate finance strategies through innovative public, private and blended financial mechanisms and facilitating access to climate finance for the sustained implementation of NbS (Nature based Solutions); (5) Accelerating upscaling and replication through a regional Urban NBS platform.

In order improve understanding by local and national stakeholders of the vulnerability to climate change and ensure informed decision-making for urban planning, climate risks assessments must be carried out at the city-level. These assessments will be developed based on modeling of impacts of landslides and flooding, with the identification of adaptation measures based on these models. UNEP is seeking a climate change modeling expert to support the development of these assessments for the city of Santo Domingo, Ecuador, under the supervision and guidance by the Adaptation to Climate Change Programme Officer and will work in close collaboration with the Regional Team and National Coordinators for Nature4Cities. The National Adaptation Plan of Ecuador (NAP) is the baseline methodology to this climate risk with biophysical impact models. The NAP has a specific model to the human settlements applicable for cities.

This person will work closely to the UNEP Nature4Cities Ecuadorian team and with Ecuador’s National Designated Authority (NDA). He/she will be supervised by the Adaptation Climate Change Programme Officer for Latin America and the Caribbean. The consultant will work from home.

Qualifications/special skills

ACADEMIC:
- Bachelor’s degree in economics, social sciences or similar is required.
- Master’s degree in economics, econometrics, statistics or similar is required.
- PhD in economics, demographics, urban development or similar is an asset

PROFESSIONAL:
- Demonstrated knowledge in making vulnerability assessment at urban levels (required)
- 10 years of relevant experience in economic, statistical and data modeling is required. Additional experience is an asset.
- Experience working in the LAC region and with local and /or national governments is desirable.
- Experience with climate change modeling for identification of adaptation measures is desirable.
- Previous work experience with the UN system or international organizations is desirable.

LANGUAGE:
- Fluency in Spanish is required.
- Confident level of English is required.

No Fee

THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.